A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the country and triggered disorder, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in universities but very few politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with even the basics. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Both authors two articles that strive for neutrality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and societal data, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the idea that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters report they prefer unity but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid arguments, he said. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will ultimately be defeated but all factions has has important lessons to gain from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must join the debate, said the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
